The USAID Business Forecast is the closest thing we have a crystal ball. As crystal balls go it is a little cloudy, but so much better than what existed before. Most organizations use the Business Forecast to identify new opportunities that USAID Missions or Global Bureaus intend to release. The Forecast is not a complete listing – be prepared to be surprised – but it is a good starting point.
Interpreting the Forecast’s description of any opportunity requires a little divination.
- Will this opportunity really come out (Could be)?
- Will it come out around the time the Mission anticipates (Probably not)?
- Will it be the type of award indicated (Your guess is as good as anyone’s)?
- Is the estimated award value accurate (Maybe…Maybe not)?
If you look beyond the specific opportunities, the September FY2014 USAID forecast portends a competitive year with fewer bids at most award sizes than indicated in the previous year’s forecast. There are fewer opportunities at all levels except for larger awards sizes (greater than $20-25 million). (See summary table below.)
My crystal ball says get another crystal ball. What does yours say?
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# ops. (FY 2014 Sept. forecast)
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# ops (FY 2013 Sept. forecast)
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> $500,000
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66
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127
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$ 500,000 - $1,000,000
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33
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29
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$ 1,000,000- 4,000,000
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47
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125
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$4,000,001 - $10,000,000
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70
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91
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$10,000,001-25,000,000
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82
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110
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20,000,000-$75,000,000
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60
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53
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75,000,001-500,000,000
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21
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11
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Total with $ value
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379
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546
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Total opportunities listed
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482
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595
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Countries reporting
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58
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63
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